{"id":483,"date":"2023-11-06T01:01:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-06T01:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bluegemresearch.co.za\/?p=483"},"modified":"2023-11-04T09:55:49","modified_gmt":"2023-11-04T09:55:49","slug":"astoria-investments-results-note-wider-discount-still-under-cautionary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/?p=483","title":{"rendered":"Astoria Investments \u2013 Results Note \u2013 Wider Discount &#038; (Still) Under Cautionary"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Share Code: ARA \u2013 Market Cap: R504m \u2013 Discount to NAV: 34%<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-file\"><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-d6b79c0c-476d-4e85-81c9-3f72c7768878\" href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Astoria-Investments_Q3_23-Results-Note.pdf\"><strong>Astoria Investments &#8211; Q3:23 Results Note<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Astoria-Investments_Q3_23-Results-Note.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-d6b79c0c-476d-4e85-81c9-3f72c7768878\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Q3:23 Results: Softer Quarter<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In Q3:23, Astoria reported a flat ZAR-NAV of 1408cps (FY 22: 1406cps), though a weaker ZAR (11% weaker against the USD from FY 22 close to Q3:23 reporting date) pushed the USD-valuation slightly lower to $0.74 per share (FY 22: $0.83ps).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Astoria typically only fairly values its <em>un<\/em>listed investments with its Q2 (i.e. H1) &amp; Q4 (i.e. Full-year) results &amp;, thus, this result involves only updated share prices &amp; exchange rates.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Commentary: Loadshedding Impacted Goldrush<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>RECM &amp; Calibre Preferences Shares\u2019 (code: RACP) lower share price shaved c.39cps from Astoria\u2019s SOTPs, &amp; this appears driven by pressure at Goldrush from loadshedding (i.e. lost trading hours, higher costs from generators &amp; consumer pressure). It is encouraging to see that Goldrush\u2019s average revenue per (active) machine grew +5% y\/y &amp; that the Sports Betting &amp; Online Gaming divisions grew strongly (+18% &amp; +51% respectively). Cash flow was strong at Goldrush &amp; we expect its operations to stabilize as it solves for power &amp; optimises for the environment, thus we remain optimistic on RACP\u2019s prospects.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>As noted above, the other significant drag on Astoria\u2019s USD-NAV has been the 11% weaker ZAR\/USD exchange rate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Valuation, 12m TP &amp; Implied Return: (Still) Under Cautionary\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/2023-November-6-ARA-SOTP.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"446\" src=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/2023-November-6-ARA-SOTP-1024x446.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-485\" srcset=\"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/2023-November-6-ARA-SOTP-1024x446.png 1024w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/2023-November-6-ARA-SOTP-300x131.png 300w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/2023-November-6-ARA-SOTP-768x334.png 768w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/2023-November-6-ARA-SOTP-624x272.png 624w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/2023-November-6-ARA-SOTP.png 1305w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Updating Astoria\u2019s NAV to current prices, the share price is trading at a c.34% discount to current NAV (Previously: 24%).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If we take out our calculated \u201cHoldCo discount\u201d of c.15.0% (Previously: 14.5%) from this NAV, we arrive at a fair value for Astoria\u2019s shares of c.1152cps (Previously: 1213cps) or c.22% <em>higher<\/em> than the current share price.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1365cps (Previously: 1440cps) that implies a potential return of c.52% from the current share price.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Note<\/strong>: The share is (still) trading under a cautionary announcement due to a potential acquisition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-file\"><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-d6b79c0c-476d-4e85-81c9-3f72c7768878\" href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Astoria-Investments_Q3_23-Results-Note.pdf\"><strong>Astoria Investments &#8211; Q3:23 Results Note<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Astoria-Investments_Q3_23-Results-Note.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-d6b79c0c-476d-4e85-81c9-3f72c7768878\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Share Code: ARA \u2013 Market Cap: R504m \u2013 Discount to NAV: 34% Q3:23 Results: Softer Quarter Commentary: Loadshedding Impacted Goldrush Valuation, 12m TP &amp; Implied Return: (Still) Under Cautionary\u2026 Note: The share is (still) trading under a cautionary announcement due to a potential acquisition.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[144],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-astoria_investments"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/483","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=483"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/483\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":486,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/483\/revisions\/486"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=483"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}