{"id":504,"date":"2024-04-08T01:01:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-08T01:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bluegemresearch.co.za\/?p=504"},"modified":"2024-04-08T04:17:11","modified_gmt":"2024-04-08T04:17:11","slug":"astoria-investments-results-note-discount-appears-to-wide","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/?p=504","title":{"rendered":"Astoria Investments \u2013 Results Note \u2013 Discount Appears too Wide"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Share Code: ARA \u2013 Market Cap: R498m \u2013 Discount to NAV: 42%<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-file\"><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-cbae75f4-69ba-4d4e-a98c-8a3adb8701d1\" href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Astoria-Investments_FY_23-Results-Note.pdf\"><strong>Astoria Investments &#8211; FY 23 &#8211; Results Note<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Astoria-Investments_FY_23-Results-Note.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-cbae75f4-69ba-4d4e-a98c-8a3adb8701d1\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>FY 23 Results: A Mixed Bag of Results<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Astoria\u2019s USD Net Asset Value (NAV) felt pressure and slipped marginally to $0.7947 per share (FY 22: $0.8266 per share), though the Rand NAV was slightly up at 1454cps (FY 22: 1406cps) as the Rand weakened over the period.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A decline in diamond prices was a headwind on diamond interests, loadshedding hurt Goldrush&#8217;s LPM performance &amp; Leatt&#8217;s share price followed its sales down over an extra-ordinary trading period.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>On the other hand, Outdoor Investment Holdings (OIH) traded (really) strongly (see relative sales performance below), ISA Carstens saw +10% enrolment growth &amp; Vehicle Care Group (VCG) is proving its model nicely.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/2024-April-7-OIH-Performance.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"474\" src=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/2024-April-7-OIH-Performance-1024x474.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-506\" srcset=\"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/2024-April-7-OIH-Performance-1024x474.png 1024w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/2024-April-7-OIH-Performance-300x139.png 300w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/2024-April-7-OIH-Performance-768x355.png 768w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/2024-April-7-OIH-Performance-624x289.png 624w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/2024-April-7-OIH-Performance.png 1221w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Commentary: Conservative NAV &amp; Upside Optionality<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Other than valuing A-Tec in OIH separately as a Norwegian asset and lifting ISA Carsten\u2019s Academy multiple from 6.0x to 7.0x (but it remains well below other listed educational stock multiples), Astoria\u2019s unlisted valuations remain largely consistent with history and, arguably, conservative.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A FY 24E normalisation in diamond prices &amp; in Leatt Corp\u2019s trading environment could point to upside in Astoria\u2019s NAV (Leatt &amp; diamond interests are a third of the Group\u2019s NAV).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/2024-April-7-NAV.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"952\" height=\"526\" src=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/2024-April-7-NAV.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-507\" srcset=\"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/2024-April-7-NAV.png 952w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/2024-April-7-NAV-300x166.png 300w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/2024-April-7-NAV-768x424.png 768w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/2024-April-7-NAV-624x345.png 624w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 952px) 100vw, 952px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Valuation, 12m TP &amp; Implied Return: Above Average Discount<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Updating Astoria\u2019s NAV to current prices, the share is trading at an above-sector-average c.42% discount to current NAV (Previously: 34%) despite its strong growth in NAV (+32.4% y\/y CAGR in Rand-NAV since management took over on 1 December 2020)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If we take out our calculated \u201cHoldCo discount\u201d of c.13.9% (Previously: 15.0%) from this NAV, we arrive at a fair value for Astoria\u2019s shares of c,1192cps (Previously: 1152cps) or c.49% <em>higher<\/em> than the current share price.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1420cps (Previously: 1365cps) which implies a potential return of c.77% from the current share price.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-file\"><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-cbae75f4-69ba-4d4e-a98c-8a3adb8701d1\" href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Astoria-Investments_FY_23-Results-Note.pdf\"><strong>Astoria Investments &#8211; FY 23 &#8211; Results Note<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Astoria-Investments_FY_23-Results-Note.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-cbae75f4-69ba-4d4e-a98c-8a3adb8701d1\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Share Code: ARA \u2013 Market Cap: R498m \u2013 Discount to NAV: 42% FY 23 Results: A Mixed Bag of Results Commentary: Conservative NAV &amp; Upside Optionality Valuation, 12m TP &amp; Implied Return: Above Average Discount<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[144],"tags":[145,149,153,152],"class_list":["post-504","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-astoria_investments","tag-astoria","tag-astoria-investments","tag-jan-van-niekerk","tag-piet-viljoen"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/504","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=504"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/504\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":510,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/504\/revisions\/510"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=504"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=504"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=504"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}