{"id":545,"date":"2024-08-16T01:01:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-16T01:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bluegemresearch.co.za\/?p=545"},"modified":"2024-08-14T07:04:00","modified_gmt":"2024-08-14T07:04:00","slug":"astoria-investments-results-note-navigating-the-rough-well","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/?p=545","title":{"rendered":"Astoria Investments \u2013 Results Note \u2013 Navigating the Rough Well"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Share Code: ARA \u2013 Market Cap: R484m \u2013 Discount to NAV: 45%<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-file\"><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-a8033177-6cd2-46f6-b426-74ea5185df2c\" href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Astoria-Investments_Q2_24_Results-Note.pdf\"><strong>Astoria Investments &#8211; Q2:24 &#8211; Results Note<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Astoria-Investments_Q2_24_Results-Note.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-a8033177-6cd2-46f6-b426-74ea5185df2c\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>H1:24\/Q2:24 Results: Fully-invested with OIH Paying Dividends<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>With a stronger Rand and lower <strong>RACP<\/strong> (soon-to-be renamed \u2018Goldrush Holdings\u2019) and <strong>Leatt Corp<\/strong> share prices, Astoria\u2019s USD-NAV and Rand-NAV softened -2.9% and -3.5% respectively.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>During the six months, Astoria invested more into <strong>Leatt Corp<\/strong> (<a href=\"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/?p=512\">LINK<\/a>), and received a legacy agterskot payout. We currently consider the Group fully invested, but dividend flows from <strong>Outdoor Investment Holdings (OIH)<\/strong> should provide incremental capital for deployment &amp; compounding.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Finally\u2014as per policy\u2014management have refreshed the Group\u2019s unlisted company valuations, which we specifically discuss in the context of their performance and their peers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Commentary: Leatt, Goldrush &amp; Diamond Headwinds Cannot Last<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>OIH<\/strong> saw broad growth (excluding Family Pet Centre), <strong>Trans Hex<\/strong> (Land &amp; Marine) somewhat bucked diamond trends with good pricing, <strong>ISA Carstens<\/strong> showed its quality, and the <strong>Vehicle Care Group (VCG)<\/strong> steadily (and responsibly) began scaling.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Unfortunately, <strong>Leatt Corp<\/strong> (trading its way through excessively stocked wholesale markets) and <strong>Goldrush<\/strong> (loadshedding hurting EBITDA margins) saw their share prices under pressure during the period, which created some headwinds to NAV.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Loadshedding (appears) gone for the moment and the wholesale market for Leatt should righten itself over time, thus implying upsides in both businesses from these levels.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Valuation, 12m TP &amp; Implied Return: Widening of Discount<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/SOTP-Split.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"886\" height=\"441\" src=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/SOTP-Split.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-547\" srcset=\"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/SOTP-Split.png 886w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/SOTP-Split-300x149.png 300w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/SOTP-Split-768x382.png 768w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/SOTP-Split-624x311.png 624w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 886px) 100vw, 886px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Astoria\u2019s share is trading at c.45% discount to the current NAV (Previously: 40%) once we update its NAV with current prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If we take out our calculated \u201cHoldCo discount\u201d of c.14.4% (Previously: 14.2%) from this NAV, we arrive at a fair value for Astoria\u2019s shares of c.1204cps (Previously: 1162cps) or c.54% <em>higher<\/em> than the current share price.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1417cps (Previously: 1386cps) which implies a potential return of c.82% from the current share price.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-file\"><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-a8033177-6cd2-46f6-b426-74ea5185df2c\" href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Astoria-Investments_Q2_24_Results-Note.pdf\"><strong>Astoria Investments &#8211; Q2:24 &#8211; Results Note<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Astoria-Investments_Q2_24_Results-Note.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-a8033177-6cd2-46f6-b426-74ea5185df2c\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Share Code: ARA \u2013 Market Cap: R484m \u2013 Discount to NAV: 45% H1:24\/Q2:24 Results: Fully-invested with OIH Paying Dividends Commentary: Leatt, Goldrush &amp; Diamond Headwinds Cannot Last Valuation, 12m TP &amp; Implied Return: Widening of Discount<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[144],"tags":[146,151,145,149,13,15,155,60,20,30,16],"class_list":["post-545","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-astoria_investments","tag-ara","tag-ara-2","tag-astoria","tag-astoria-investments","tag-equity-research","tag-jse","tag-outdoor","tag-research","tag-small-cap","tag-small-caps","tag-south-africa"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=545"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":553,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545\/revisions\/553"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=545"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=545"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=545"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}