{"id":583,"date":"2024-11-04T01:01:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-04T01:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bluegemresearch.co.za\/?p=583"},"modified":"2024-12-13T13:10:25","modified_gmt":"2024-12-13T13:10:25","slug":"astoria-investments-ltd-results-note-crystalizing-nav-with-optionality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/?p=583","title":{"rendered":"Astoria Investments Ltd \u2013 Results Note \u2013\u00a0Crystalizing NAV with Optionality"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Share Code: ARA \u2013 Market Cap: R537m \u2013 Discount to NAV: c.39%<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Astoria-Investments_Q3_24_Results-Note.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of &lt;strong&gt;Astoria Investments - Q3:24 - Results Note&lt;\/strong&gt;.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-9a314394-9e9a-4c3e-8ac9-280c9ca3d5b5\" href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Astoria-Investments_Q3_24_Results-Note.pdf\"><strong>Astoria Investments &#8211; Q3:24 &#8211; Results Note<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Astoria-Investments_Q3_24_Results-Note.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-9a314394-9e9a-4c3e-8ac9-280c9ca3d5b5\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Q3:24 Results: Headwinds of a Stronger Rand<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Astoria reports quarterly but management only update unlisted valuations in the Q2 and Q4 reports. Thus, the key change over the Q3:24 period was a stronger Rand (c.9% stronger on a 12m-rolling basis and c.6% stronger versus the start of the current reporting period versus the USD).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>With this context, Astoria\u2019s NAV per share increased by +2.1% in USD and decreased by 3.7% in ZAR for the Q3:24 period (as compared to NAV at the start of financial year).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Astoria&#8217;s NAV components:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2024-11-02-ARA.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"886\" height=\"427\" src=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2024-11-02-ARA.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-585\" srcset=\"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2024-11-02-ARA.jpg 886w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2024-11-02-ARA-300x145.jpg 300w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2024-11-02-ARA-768x370.jpg 768w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/2024-11-02-ARA-624x301.jpg 624w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 886px) 100vw, 886px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Commentary: ISA Carstens (Potential) Exit Proving Solidity of NAV<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Astoria has received a non-binding offer for its stake in <strong>ISA Carstens<\/strong> &amp;, along with fellow shareholders, final terms are being negotiated. While the offer is non-binding, its pricing <em>is<\/em> broadly in line with Astoria\u2019s fair value for <strong>ISA Carstens<\/strong>. This gives us a <em>great<\/em> data point for the <em>realism<\/em> of management\u2019s fair values for their unlisted investments (the 3<sup>rd-<\/sup>party offer aligns with Astoria\u2019s valuation). Finally, this potentially turns c.8% of the Group\u2019s NAV into cash which would provide management with ammo for future investment options (i.e. embeds some exciting optionality for future capital allocations).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Outdoor Investment Holding<\/strong> continues to trade well, <strong>Leatt Corp\u2019s<\/strong> latest quarterly hints at a trough being reached, RECM Calibre has changed its name to <strong>Goldrush Holdings<\/strong> (code: GRSP), low diamond prices continue (<strong>Land<\/strong> is doing relatively well while <strong>Marine<\/strong> has its ship in dry dock for well-timed maintenance), &amp; <strong>VCG<\/strong> continues corporatising and scaling.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Valuation, 12m TP &amp; Implied Return: Discount a Little Tighter<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Astoria\u2019s share is trading at c.39% discount to the current NAV (Previously: 45%) once we update its NAV with current prices.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If we take out our calculated \u201cHoldCo discount\u201d of c.13.6% (Previously: 14.4%) from this NAV, we arrive at a fair value for Astoria\u2019s shares of c.1216cps (Previously: 1204cps) or c.41% <em>higher<\/em> than the current share price.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1433cps (Previously: 1417cps) that implies a potential return of c.66% from the current share price.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-file\"><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-9a314394-9e9a-4c3e-8ac9-280c9ca3d5b5\" href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Astoria-Investments_Q3_24_Results-Note.pdf\"><strong>Astoria Investments &#8211; Q3:24 &#8211; Results Note<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/Astoria-Investments_Q3_24_Results-Note.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-9a314394-9e9a-4c3e-8ac9-280c9ca3d5b5\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Share Code: ARA \u2013 Market Cap: R537m \u2013 Discount to NAV: c.39% Q3:24 Results: Headwinds of a Stronger Rand Astoria&#8217;s NAV components: Commentary: ISA Carstens (Potential) Exit Proving Solidity of NAV Valuation, 12m TP &amp; Implied Return: Discount a Little Tighter<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[144],"tags":[145,161,13,163,15,152,162,60,150,16],"class_list":["post-583","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-astoria_investments","tag-astoria","tag-astoria-investment","tag-equity-research","tag-isa-carstens","tag-jse","tag-piet-viljoen","tag-recm","tag-research","tag-safari-and-outdoor","tag-south-africa"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/583","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=583"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/583\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":606,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/583\/revisions\/606"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=583"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=583"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=583"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}