{"id":659,"date":"2025-05-07T01:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-07T01:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bluegemresearch.co.za\/?p=659"},"modified":"2025-05-06T09:21:10","modified_gmt":"2025-05-06T09:21:10","slug":"astoria-investments-ltd-results-note-rough-in-the-diamond","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/?p=659","title":{"rendered":"Astoria Investments Ltd \u2013 Results Note \u2013\u00a0Rough in the Diamond"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Share Code: ARA \u2013 Market Cap: R418m \u2013 Discount to NAV: c.35% (c.32% assuming Diamond investments worth zero)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Astoria-Investments_Q1_25_Results-Note.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of &lt;strong&gt;Astoria Investments - Q1:25 - Results Note&lt;\/strong&gt;.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-80778fa2-8535-4695-8bd5-9ffb9ae51a6b\" href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Astoria-Investments_Q1_25_Results-Note.pdf\"><strong>Astoria Investments &#8211; Q1:25 &#8211; Results Note<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Astoria-Investments_Q1_25_Results-Note.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-80778fa2-8535-4695-8bd5-9ffb9ae51a6b\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Q1:25 Results: Diamond Valuations Written Down<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>While Q1 and Q3 results from Astoria are often more administrative (unlisted valuations are usually only updated at Q2 and Q4 period ends), this quarter saw continued pressure on diamond prices and management have prudently written the Marine Diamond valuation to nil and impaired the Trans Hex (i.e. Land Diamond) valuation by 55% to $1.2m.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This resulted in the Group\u2019s NAV dropping by -6% in USD &amp; -9% in ZAR (the Rand also strengthened over this quarter or, more accurately, the US Dollar weakened) when compared to the prior quarter (31 December 2024).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Commentary: Gone but Not Nil<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Despite a zero value, the Marine business continues to <em>operate<\/em> and can be considered a \u201cnil value option\u201d in Astoria\u2019s NAV.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consensus in the diamond market appears to expect a modest recovery in rough diamond prices (mid-single digits) around late 2025. This recovery is dependent on supply chain efficiencies, marketing effectiveness, and economic stability.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Likewise, consensus appears bearish on a full return to pre-pandemic due to the prevalence of lab-grown diamonds.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Idex Diamond Index &#8211; 5-year Spot Chart<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.idexonline.com\/diamond_prices_index\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"441\" src=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-06-Idex-Diamond-Index.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-660\" srcset=\"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-06-Idex-Diamond-Index.png 640w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-06-Idex-Diamond-Index-300x207.png 300w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2025-05-06-Idex-Diamond-Index-624x430.png 624w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Valuation, 12m TP &amp; Implied Return: More than Priced In<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Astoria\u2019s share is trading at c.35% discount to NAV (Previously: 30%) once we update its NAV with current spot\/listed prices. This discount is closer to c.32% if we assume that the remaining 4% of NAV in Trans Hex is worth zero.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If we take out our calculated \u201cHoldCo discount\u201d of c.15.9% (unchanged), we arrive at a fair value for Astoria\u2019s shares of c.858cps (Previously: 966cps) or c.27% <em>higher<\/em> than the current share price \u2013 but, this fair value is including the diamond valuations as is (i.e. Marine at nil &amp; Land halved) and note our comment about \u201cnil value options\u201d above. Any recovery in the diamond market would translate into upside here.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rolling this fair value forward at our Cost of Equity, we arrive at a 12m TP of c.1020cps (Previously: 1150cps) that implies a potential return of c.51% from the current share price.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-file\"><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-80778fa2-8535-4695-8bd5-9ffb9ae51a6b\" href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Astoria-Investments_Q1_25_Results-Note.pdf\"><strong>Astoria Investments &#8211; Q1:25 &#8211; Results Note<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Astoria-Investments_Q1_25_Results-Note.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-80778fa2-8535-4695-8bd5-9ffb9ae51a6b\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Share Code: ARA \u2013 Market Cap: R418m \u2013 Discount to NAV: c.35% (c.32% assuming Diamond investments worth zero) Q1:25 Results: Diamond Valuations Written Down Commentary: Gone but Not Nil Idex Diamond Index &#8211; 5-year Spot Chart Valuation, 12m TP &amp; Implied Return: More than Priced In<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[144],"tags":[149,176,13,120,15,60,20,30,16],"class_list":["post-659","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-astoria_investments","tag-astoria-investments","tag-diamonds","tag-equity-research","tag-holdco","tag-jse","tag-research","tag-small-cap","tag-small-caps","tag-south-africa"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/659","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=659"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/659\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":662,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/659\/revisions\/662"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=659"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=659"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=659"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}