{"id":695,"date":"2025-11-03T01:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-03T01:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bluegemresearch.co.za\/?p=695"},"modified":"2025-11-01T07:14:02","modified_gmt":"2025-11-01T07:14:02","slug":"astoria-investments-ltd-q325-results-note-probable-delisting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/?p=695","title":{"rendered":"Astoria Investments Ltd \u2013 Q3:25 Results Note \u2013\u00a0Probable Delisting"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Share Code: ARA \u2013 Market Cap: R506m \u2013 Discount to Offer: c.<\/em>9%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Astoria-Investments_Q3_25_Results-Note.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of &lt;strong&gt;Astoria Investments - Q3:25 - Results Note&lt;\/strong&gt;.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-460243ef-973f-4d1d-9076-a25fbe3e91d1\" href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Astoria-Investments_Q3_25_Results-Note.pdf\"><strong>Astoria Investments &#8211; Q3:25 &#8211; Results Note<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Astoria-Investments_Q3_25_Results-Note.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-460243ef-973f-4d1d-9076-a25fbe3e91d1\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Q3:25 Results: Not the big news\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Astoria reported Q3:25 results with NAV in USD growing +3% to $0.64 per share and decreasing 6% in ZAR to 1099cps.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>After prior and current period realisations of ISA Carstens and Outdoor Investment Holdings (OIH), NAV now c.31% cash.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Commentary: The big news &#8211; Proposed delisting (&amp; unbundling)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Astoria has proposed a repurchase offer, proposed delisting (off the JSE and SEM) and the unbundling Goldrush:<ul><li>The <strong>share repurchase offer is priced at 815cps, <\/strong>limited to a maximum of 42.5% of shares, and is conditional on a range of items, most notably the resolution to approve <strong>delisting Astoria from the JSE<\/strong> and SEM exchanges.<\/li><\/ul>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In the event of the delisting being approved, <strong>Astoria will <em>also<\/em> unbundle 7.5m Goldrush preference shares<\/strong> (12 GRSP shares for every 100 Astoria shares held) or c.83cps of value (before the SENS announcement) or c.72cps of value as of the date of this note (based on GRSP\u2019s share price).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Irrevocable undertakings have been made to vote in favour of all resolutions (59.33% disinterested vote) and <em>not<\/em> to accept the repurchase offer (57.81% will go \u201cprivate\u201d with the company\u2019s delisting, i.e. 42.19% of shares are left to accept the cash portion of the share repurchase before the delisting).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Given the irrevocables, the pricing of the offer (in line with our \u2018fair value\u2019 <em>without<\/em> a control premium given that control is <em>not<\/em> changing in this repurchase) and, thus, the likelihood of a positive fairness opinion, we believe <strong>it is probable that Astoria\u2019s repurchase, unbundling and delisting will proceed<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/2025-11-01.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"792\" height=\"583\" src=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/2025-11-01.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-700\" style=\"width:370px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/2025-11-01.png 792w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/2025-11-01-300x221.png 300w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/2025-11-01-768x565.png 768w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/2025-11-01-624x459.png 624w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 792px) 100vw, 792px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Valuation, 12m TP &amp; Implied Return: Delisting Price<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Given the pricing of the transaction to delist and the probability of its approval, <strong>we update our fair value <em>and<\/em> 12m TP to the transaction price of 887cps or c.9% higher than the share price<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Interestingly, <strong>this essentially lines up with our Sum-of-the-Parts fair value for Astoria of c.905cps after a 17% HoldCo discount<\/strong> (previously: 16.3%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-file\"><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-460243ef-973f-4d1d-9076-a25fbe3e91d1\" href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Astoria-Investments_Q3_25_Results-Note.pdf\"><strong>Astoria Investments &#8211; Q3:25 &#8211; Results Note<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Astoria-Investments_Q3_25_Results-Note.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-460243ef-973f-4d1d-9076-a25fbe3e91d1\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Share Code: ARA \u2013 Market Cap: R506m \u2013 Discount to Offer: c.9% Q3:25 Results: Not the big news\u2026 Commentary: The big news &#8211; Proposed delisting (&amp; unbundling) Valuation, 12m TP &amp; Implied Return: Delisting Price<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[144],"tags":[145,180,13,153,15,60,20,30,16],"class_list":["post-695","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-astoria_investments","tag-astoria","tag-delisting","tag-equity-research","tag-jan-van-niekerk","tag-jse","tag-research","tag-small-cap","tag-small-caps","tag-south-africa"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/695","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=695"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/695\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":701,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/695\/revisions\/701"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=695"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=695"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=695"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}