{"id":767,"date":"2026-08-03T01:01:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-03T01:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bluegemresearch.co.za\/?p=767"},"modified":"2026-08-01T09:22:51","modified_gmt":"2026-08-01T09:22:51","slug":"goldrush-holdings-fy-26-results-note-lottery-taking-off-bingo-under-pressure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/?p=767","title":{"rendered":"Goldrush Holdings \u2013 FY 26 Results Note \u2013 Lottery Taking Off, Bingo Under Pressure"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Share Code: GRSP \u2013 Market Cap: R333m \u2013 EV\/EBITDA: 4.2x<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Goldrush-Holdings-Results-Note-FY-26.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of &lt;strong&gt;Goldrush Holdings - Results Note - FY 26&lt;\/strong&gt;.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-6dc8f16c-65ab-4136-8cfd-40bc3bab1625\" href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Goldrush-Holdings-Results-Note-FY-26.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Goldrush Holdings &#8211; Results Note &#8211; FY 26<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Goldrush-Holdings-Results-Note-FY-26.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-6dc8f16c-65ab-4136-8cfd-40bc3bab1625\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Summary of Results: A big write-down, a resilient top line<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A R586m non-cash impairment of land-based licences (c.27% of prior carrying value) drove a reported operating loss of R425m and EPS of -715.55cps (FY 25: +137.34cps).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>HEPS was a profit of 54.5cps (down 62%, but ahead of our 5cps forecast as we missed on tax but were broadly correct on revenue and operating income); gross gaming revenue held +1% as Online (+22%) and LPMs (+5%) offset Bingo (-6%).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cash from operations of R287m funded degearing; the RMB preference-share covenants were breached (and condoned).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/2026-08-01-Figure-1.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"439\" src=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/2026-08-01-Figure-1-1024x439.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-769\" srcset=\"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/2026-08-01-Figure-1-1024x439.png 1024w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/2026-08-01-Figure-1-300x129.png 300w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/2026-08-01-Figure-1-768x329.png 768w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/2026-08-01-Figure-1-624x268.png 624w, https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/2026-08-01-Figure-1.png 1250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Thoughts: The land-based reset is now on the page<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The impairment puts a number on the structural, online-driven de-rating of marginal land-based licences we flagged at <a href=\"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/?p=736\">initiation<\/a>, and management&#8217;s candour is a positive.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Online is the quiet highlight with disciplined, organic and cash-generative (active customers rose from 40k to 70k).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sizekhaya (National Lottery operator) went live on 1 June 2026 and is a key swing factor, though some legal risk still remains.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Updated Forecast and Valuation: Sensitive to assumptions\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>We cut our fair value to 1000cps (previously: 1074cps) and our 12m TP to 1171cps (previously: 1260cps) showing a c.57% return, but this <em>is<\/em> a subjective <em>mid<\/em>-range selection given our fair value range from 914cps (LTM Relative Value reflecting backwards-looking pressure in FY 26) to 1132cps (segmental DCF SOTP) to >2000cps (NTM with forecast risk + Sizekhaya uplift). Operating &amp; financial leverage accentuate fair value outcomes across our models (see below Bingo comment), but we expect this to lower as the Group degears in coming years.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This slip in fair value is reflective of land-based gambling operational pressure, coupled with the uplift of Sizekhaya Lottery operations going live all combining with a slightly higher current inflation rate &amp; elevated gambling regulatory\/tax uncertainty. The operating and financial leverage in Goldrush Holdings &amp; Goldrush Group amplify assumptions such that assuming just a <em>single<\/em> +100bps higher revenue growth rate for <em>only<\/em> Bingo lifted our implied fair value by +39%!<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-file\"><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-6dc8f16c-65ab-4136-8cfd-40bc3bab1625\" href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Goldrush-Holdings-Results-Note-FY-26.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Goldrush Holdings &#8211; Results Note &#8211; FY 26<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Goldrush-Holdings-Results-Note-FY-26.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-6dc8f16c-65ab-4136-8cfd-40bc3bab1625\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Share Code: GRSP \u2013 Market Cap: R333m \u2013 EV\/EBITDA: 4.2x Summary of Results: A big write-down, a resilient top line Thoughts: The land-based reset is now on the page Updated Forecast and Valuation: Sensitive to assumptions\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[182],"tags":[13,15,60,20,30,16],"class_list":["post-767","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-goldrush-holdings-preference-shares","tag-equity-research","tag-jse","tag-research","tag-small-cap","tag-small-caps","tag-south-africa"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/767","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=767"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/767\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":770,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/767\/revisions\/770"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=767"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=767"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/v5j22kvl0zh.c.updraftclone.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=767"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}