Category Archives: Goldrush Holdings (GRSP)

Research reports on Goldrush Holdings’ JSE-listed preference shares (GRSP), that holds the Goldrush Group (eBingo, LPM and betting operations) and Sizekhaya that operates the South African National Lottery.

Goldrush Holdings – FY 26 Results Note – Lottery Taking Off, Bingo Under Pressure

Share Code: GRSP – Market Cap: R333m – EV/EBITDA: 4.2x

Goldrush Holdings – Results Note – FY 26Download

Summary of Results: A big write-down, a resilient top line

  • A R586m non-cash impairment of land-based licences (c.27% of prior carrying value) drove a reported operating loss of R425m and EPS of -715.55cps (FY 25: +137.34cps).
  • HEPS was a profit of 54.5cps (down 62%, but ahead of our 5cps forecast as we missed on tax but were broadly correct on revenue and operating income); gross gaming revenue held +1% as Online (+22%) and LPMs (+5%) offset Bingo (-6%).
  • Cash from operations of R287m funded degearing; the RMB preference-share covenants were breached (and condoned).

Thoughts: The land-based reset is now on the page

  • The impairment puts a number on the structural, online-driven de-rating of marginal land-based licences we flagged at initiation, and management’s candour is a positive.
  • Online is the quiet highlight with disciplined, organic and cash-generative (active customers rose from 40k to 70k).
  • Sizekhaya (National Lottery operator) went live on 1 June 2026 and is a key swing factor, though some legal risk still remains.

Updated Forecast and Valuation: Sensitive to assumptions…

  • We cut our fair value to 1000cps (previously: 1074cps) and our 12m TP to 1171cps (previously: 1260cps) showing a c.57% return, but this is a subjective mid-range selection given our fair value range from 914cps (LTM Relative Value reflecting backwards-looking pressure in FY 26) to 1132cps (segmental DCF SOTP) to >2000cps (NTM with forecast risk + Sizekhaya uplift). Operating & financial leverage accentuate fair value outcomes across our models (see below Bingo comment), but we expect this to lower as the Group degears in coming years.
  • This slip in fair value is reflective of land-based gambling operational pressure, coupled with the uplift of Sizekhaya Lottery operations going live all combining with a slightly higher current inflation rate & elevated gambling regulatory/tax uncertainty. The operating and financial leverage in Goldrush Holdings & Goldrush Group amplify assumptions such that assuming just a single +100bps higher revenue growth rate for only Bingo lifted our implied fair value by +39%!
Goldrush Holdings – Results Note – FY 26Download

Goldrush Holdings – Initiation of Coverage – Win the Lottery

Share Code: GRSP – Market Cap: R272m – EV/EBITDA: 4.1x

Goldrush Holdings (Preference Shares) – Initiation of CoverageDownload

Business Overview: Good mix of mature & growing operations

  • Goldrush Holdings (code: GRSP) is a well-run non-casino gambling operation listed on the JSE with material Bingo, Limited Payout Machine (LPM), Sports Betting (offline and online) operations all at various stages of growth, maturity and profitability.
  • More recently, Goldrush holds a significant stake in the operator (from 1 June 2026) of the South African National Lottery for the next eight years (Sizekhaya) – we see particular value in this investment and, indeed, the market appears to have not priced this into Goldrush’s share price.

South African Gambling Sector: Changes, uncertainty, unknowns…

  • Consumer trends in the gambling market have steadily shifted GGR towards more convenient gambling products; initially moving share from land-based casinos towards distributed LPMs and, more recently, shifting towards online gambling products.
  • Lagging these consumer trends, the gambling sector regulation and tax regimes are likely to change in South Africa, with a range of possible outcomes that introduce both risk (and some opportunity) into the sector’s prospects.
  • Irrespective of these changes, there is a steady deterioration in the economics of high fixed-cost casinos. Following consumer trends shifting share to more convenient gambling products, the market values groups with larger exposures in LPMs, bingo and online gambling higher than the operators of traditional casinos.

Forecast, Valuation and Implied Return: Sizekhaya not priced in

  • Having built a segmental-level driven DCF that we have then consolidated upwards (taking minorities & net debt out along the way), we arrive at a fair value of c.1074cps for Goldrush’s preference shares (after taking out a 20% discount for their lack of voting rights). Rolling this forward, we arrive at a 12m TP of 1260cps implying a c.110% return from these levels.
  • If we assume Sizekhaya is worth zero, our fair value drops to c.586cps or almost in line with the share price, implying that the market has not yet priced in Sizekhaya. In other words, you can pay fair value for Goldrush’s operations and are (nearly) guaranteed to win the lottery!
Goldrush Holdings (Preference Shares) – Initiation of CoverageDownload