Share Code: SBP – Market Cap: R6bn – Share Price discount to NAV: 12%

FY 25 Results: Excellent Growth

• Sabvest reported excellent growth (+22% y/y) in its Net Asset Value (NAV) per share to 16105cps (FY 24: 13213cps), predominantly driven by Apex Partners’ tripling in value during the period (Apex took control of &, thus, started consolidating in DRA during the year).
• The Group hiked its dividend accordingly by +28% to 130cps (FY 24: 105cps), and its balance sheet is largely ungeared with good capacity for future investments.

Thoughts: Momentum Likely to Continue

• Most of Sabvest’s businesses have clearly positive prospects, with some more neutral, and only Halewood potentially showing structural weakness (declines in the global alcoholic beverage market persist).
• FY 26E should see Apex consolidate DRA Global for a full twelve months, implying upside in its FY 26E fair value.
• ITL Holdings and SA Bias’s Flowmax are well-positioned to grow (organically and/or acquisitively) while Amicus should benefit from its Global Grinder merger in due course. At the same time, Masimong’s Seriti should reap a material windfall from higher energy/thermal coal prices following the USA-Iran war.
• The obvious risk to our view is a prolonged disruption to the global economy caused by the USA-Iran war.

Valuation & Implied Return: Starting to Reflect Value

• We estimate that the share is currently trading at a discount to its current 16180cps NAV and—after including a HoldCo discount against this NAV of 10% (unchanged)—we believe that the share’s fair value is around 14613cps (previously: 12334cps).
• Rolling our post-discount fair value forward, we see the Group’s 12m TP as 17119cps (previously: 14540cps) with an implied return of +20% from these levels.